Most important take away

The U.S. economy is decisively K-shaped: middle and lower-end consumers are struggling (Domino’s weak comps), while overall spending and AI CapEx remain strong enough to keep the market climbing. AI infrastructure spending from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta shows no slowdown, and that spending is what is currently driving GDP and the market. Eisman is sticking with (and adding to) Charter despite a bad quarter, because the valuation and buyback thesis remain intact.

Summary

Actionable Insights and Stocks Mentioned

Charter Communications (CHTR) — Eisman owns, added to position on Friday

• Recommended in January at $223; now down 22% YTD after a 25% drop following Q1 results.
• Lost 120,000 broadband subscribers (worse than 100K estimate; double last year).
• Thesis intact: CapEx falling from $11B (2026) to $7.5B (2028-2029), enabling massive buybacks (potentially 50% of shares over 4-5 years on a $23B market cap).
• Trades at ~4x 2026 P/E, <2x out-year free cash flow, ~70% out-year FCF yield.
• Action: Eisman added to position; “being paid to wait.” Warns it could remain cheap for a long time.

FICO (Fair Isaac) — Eisman is SHORT

• Risk: Vantage Score (from the three credit bureaus) will compete head-to-head once FHFA approves both, with full implementation in 2027.
• Pricing gap is enormous: per 100 mortgage applications, FICO collects $2,049 vs. Vantage’s $99.
• FICO ironically depends on data from the three bureaus that are now its competitors.
• Action: Eisman thinks management is wrong about not losing share; remains short.

Visa (V) — Eisman owns for years

• Net revenue +17% YoY (biggest jump since 2022); EPS $3.31 beat $3.10; payment volume +9%.
• Best read on the consumer; consumer overall still spending, though bifurcated.

Eli Lilly (LLY) — Eisman owns for years

• “Won the diet drug wars.” EPS $8.55 vs. $6.66 expected and $3.34 last year. Revenue $19.8B vs. $17.6B. Raised guidance.

Quanta Services (PWR) — Eisman owns for years

• AI data center construction beneficiary. EPS $2.68 vs. $2.08 estimate; revenue $7.87B (+26%).

Caterpillar (CAT)

• AI-related (data center construction equipment). EPS $5.54 vs. $4.63 estimate; revenue $17.4B (+22%); construction segment sales +38%.

General Motors (GM) — Cited as the kind of turnaround Eisman hopes for with Charter (stock went from $27 in Nov 2023 to $78). EPS $3.70 beat $2.60; raised guidance.

Starbucks (SBUX) — Real turnaround signal. Second straight quarter of traffic growth; same-store sales +6.2%; raised full-year outlook.

Big AI/Cloud Quartet (Wed night earnings)

• Google (GOOG): Revenue $94.7B; cloud $20B vs. $18B expected — strong acceleration. Stock +10%.
• Amazon (AMZN): EPS $2.78 vs. $1.63; AWS +28% (vs. 24% prior, 26% est.); $225B in Trainium revenue commitments. Stock +1%.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Azure +39% (only 1% above expectations). Stock -4% on insufficient beat.
• Meta (META): Raised 2026 CapEx to $135B from $125B. Stock -8.5% on CapEx fatigue.
• Takeaway: No slowdown in AI CapEx; this is what’s driving GDP and the market.

Domino’s (DPZ) — Same-store sales +0.9% vs. +2.3% expected; EPS -5%. Signals deep recession at the bottom-of-K consumer.

Apple (AAPL) — Decent quarter; EPS $2.01 vs. $1.65 last year. iPhone missed for 2nd time in 3 quarters.

Bookings (BKNG) — Cut June quarter revenue growth outlook to 6% vs. 11% consensus due to the Iran war. Stock down.

Enphase (ENPH) — No thesis; EPS $0.47 vs. $0.68 (-31%). Stock has gone from $335 (end 2022) to $33. Hard to see catalyst.

Blue Owl (OWL) — Stock +10% (19% short interest). Direct lending returned -40 bps. Stock-based comp jumped 21% QoQ to $196M (vs. $130M est.) despite stock down 39% YTD. Heavy SBC use makes GAAP earnings barely profitable.

Ares Capital (ARCC) / Ares Management (ARES) — Eisman skeptical of “low risk” categorization of software loans. Using ServiceNow as a proxy (down from $209 to <$90), private software equity values are likely <50% of purchase price — raising refinancing risk concerns across private credit.

Macro and Market Observations

• War with Iran: No negotiations; Strait of Hormuz blockade continues; Brent crude above $115.
• UAE leaving OPEC: A “canary moment” for shifting global alliances; possibly UAE wants to grab market share.
• Market rally: S&P +5% YTD, NASDAQ +7% YTD (vs. -4%/-7% at end of March). Same leaders (tech, banks); regime-change calls were wrong.
• Gold acting strangely — not rallying despite war/inflation conditions; worth watching.
• Semiconductors now 16% of S&P 500 (all-time high), 46% of infotech. Software only 8% (down from 12% in Aug 2025). Market increasingly sensitive to AI news.
• “Buy the dip” remains the mantra as long as AI CapEx carries GDP.

Chapter Summaries

Intro & Sponsor (Ground News): Eisman pitches Ground News for separating facts from media bias.

Charter Recap: Despite 25% drop and worse-than-expected broadband losses, Eisman maintains thesis and added to his position. Convergence advantage ($100/mo cable+mobile vs. $182-200 competitors).

Iran War Update: Iran’s proposal to reopen Strait rejected; US maintains economic pressure via blockade; Brent above $115.

UAE Leaves OPEC: Major geopolitical shift; likely market-share grab; signals broader realignment.

Market Rally Analysis: Mirror of 2024’s pattern; same-name leadership defied calls for regime change to staples/energy. Gold and semis flagged as anomalies/risks.

Private Credit Concerns (ARCC/ARES): Even “low risk” software loans face refinancing risk because underlying private equity values have collapsed (ServiceNow proxy down 60%).

Earnings Roundup: Blue Owl, Domino’s, GM, Starbucks, Visa, FICO, Bookings, Enphase, Big 4 (GOOG/MSFT/AMZN/META), Eli Lilly, Quanta, Caterpillar, Apple — covered above with specifics.

Closing: Promotes upcoming interviews with Apollo’s Chris Edson and Strategas’ Christopher Verrone & Todd Sohn.