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Is a Recession Coming? What 100+ Companies Are Telling Us | The Weekly Wrap

The Real Eisman Playbook · Steve Eisman · April 24, 2026 · Original

Most important take away

Across 100+ Q1 earnings reports, results were broadly good with no signs of an impending recession. The strongest stories remain GE Aerospace and GE Vernova (AI-driven electrical demand for gas turbines), while software is in a precarious narrative phase where even good results (ServiceNow, IBM) get punished — Eisman warns to “tread very carefully” before bottom-fishing software.

Summary

Actionable insights and stocks/investments mentioned:

  • Macro / Recession call: Earnings from 100+ companies do not indicate a looming recession. Big banks last week showed benign credit; this week broad industries confirm. Action: stay invested, don’t position for a near-term recession.

  • War in Iran: Still unresolved; market keeps rallying on assumption it ends soon. Higher oil prices are hitting earnings — United Airlines cut 2026 EPS guide to $7–$11 (from $12–$14); American Airlines also cut 2026 guidance. Action: be cautious on travel-related names tied to fuel costs.

  • Private credit warning: Blackstone’s BCRED ($81B, largest private credit fund) inflows down sharply (~$230M vs $1B/month avg in 2025), performance flat, non-accruals rose to 1.4% of fair value, with Medallia marked at $60.30 and Affordable Care at $69.80 on the dollar. Signal of stress in private credit.

  • Blackstone (BX): EPS $1.36 (beat by 2 cents), revenue +10% to $3.62B, AUM $1.3T (+12% YoY), but performance weak across funds (opportunistic real estate -90 bps, liquid credit -1.3%, private credit +60 bps, PE secondaries +70 bps). Stock fell on the report. Action: cautious — performance metrics deteriorating.

  • FICO (Fair Isaac) — SHORT (Eisman is short): FHFA approved VantageScore as alternative to FICO Classic for GSE mortgages on a level playing field. Stock down 40%+ YTD. Eisman discloses short position; an in-depth interview is coming. Actionable bearish thesis.

  • Health insurance — turning:

    • UnitedHealth (UNH): EPS $7.23 vs $6.57 (beat), MLR improved, Optum Health margins 5.4% vs 3.2% expected. But Optum still has unresolved coding/Medicare Advantage pricing issues. Turnaround story playing out — momentum, but watch Optum risk.
    • Elevance: 5% EPS beat but largely from non-recurring investment income; 2026 EPS still expected -15%. Less convincing.
    • Molina: EPS $2.35 vs $1.90 (beat $0.45), but Medicaid attrition continues (4.498M vs 4.568M), leaving sicker remaining cohort. 2026 EPS estimate is $5 (-54% YoY). Eisman cautious — would not chase the bounce.

  • Industrials — strong:

    • GE Aerospace (GE): EPS $1.86 vs $1.49 (+25%), revenue +29%, orders +87% to $23B. Airlines still buying despite war. Bullish.
    • GE Vernova (GEV) — Eisman owns: EPS $3.30 vs $1.78 (+85%), orders +71% to $18.3B, raised guidance. Best AI-related play — gas turbines (only 3 makers globally: GEV, Siemens, Mitsubishi) needed for AI data center electrical demand. 2026 P/E ~80x but 2030 P/E ~36x given long-tail order book. Bullish.
    • Boeing (BA): Loss of $0.20 vs -$0.49, cash burn lower than expected ($1.45B), 143 commercial deliveries (best Q1 since 2019). Moving in right direction.

  • Tesla (TSLA): EPS $0.41 vs $0.34 (beat), but revenue missed; Musk raised AV/robot capex above $25B. 2026 P/E >200x. Bulls and bears talking past each other. Eisman not involved.

  • Software — TREAD CAREFULLY:

    • ServiceNow (NOW): EPS $0.97 (+20%, beat by 1¢), revenue $3.77B (+22%), but ~75 bps subscription headwind from delayed Middle East deals → stock -13% after hours. Narrative is fragile.
    • IBM: EPS $1.91, revenue $15.9B (beats), software +11% to $7.05B (in line) — stock -7% after hours. Action: avoid bottom-fishing in software per Eisman.
    • Long-term thesis on software: incumbents survive AI assault, but seat growth and pricing power will weaken — bullish thesis is structurally impaired.

  • Homebuilders — beaten down, hopeful:

    • D.R. Horton (DHI): EPS $2.24 vs $2.58 (-13%, in line), maintained 2026 guide of -10%; stock rallied on low expectations.
    • Meritage Homes (MTH) — Eisman recommended in January: EPS $2.02 (-51%), orders -5%, free cash flow strong, bought back 3% of shares; trades below tangible book of $75. Eisman still likes the stock.
    • PulteGroup (PHM): EPS $1.79 (-30%) but orders +3%. Group depends on rates falling/war ending.

  • Mailbag — Treasuries / debt panic: Eisman dismisses Hank Paulson’s warning about a US Treasury collapse. Notes Paulson’s bad track record (subprime “contained” call in Aug 2007), Japan’s debt/GDP at 240%, and that there’s no liquid alternative to Treasuries. Action: don’t position for a Treasury crisis.

  • Mailbag — AI/Software: Practitioner argues B2C AI dollars flow to mega caps (Google, Meta); B2B internalization is overstated due to TCO, talent, risk, compliance; sales (not R&D) is the largest cost; agentic systems’ non-determinism limits critical workflow use. Eisman disagrees on stock-based comp — it is a real expense.

Chapter Summaries

  1. Intro & War in Iran (opaque): No resolution; VP Vance’s Pakistan trip postponed; market keeps rallying on hopes of a quick end.
  2. Private credit news (Blackstone BCRED): Inflows collapsed vs 2025 average; performance flat; non-accruals rising; key write-downs in Medallia and Affordable Care.
  3. Airlines hit by oil: United and American both cut 2026 guidance.
  4. Big-bank-style 100+ company sweep: No recession signals.
  5. Blackstone (BX) earnings: Beat on distributable earnings but weak fund performance dragged stock.
  6. FICO / VantageScore disruption: GSEs accept VantageScore — major bear catalyst; Eisman is short.
  7. Health insurers: UNH beats and rallies (turnaround); Elevance mixed (one-time gains); Molina beats but Medicaid attrition is a headwind.
  8. Industrials: GE Aerospace strong (+87% orders); GE Vernova exceptional (+71% orders, raised guide); Boeing improving.
  9. Tesla: EPS beat, revenue miss, capex hike on AV/robots; bulls vs bears disconnected.
  10. Software: ServiceNow -13% and IBM -7% after hours despite beats — narrative is fragile; avoid bottom-fishing.
  11. Homebuilders: DHI, Meritage, Pulte all weak vs last year but better than feared given high rates.
  12. Mailbag #1 — Paulson Treasury warning: Eisman pushes back; no alternative to Treasuries.
  13. Mailbag #2 — AI software practitioner view: Incumbents likely survive but seat growth and pricing power are at risk; SBC is a real expense.
  14. Housekeeping: Jeffrey Hirsch (Stock Trader’s Almanac) interview posted Monday; Apollo’s Chris Edson interview on private credit coming next Monday.