Most important take away

Dinosaur fossils are emerging as a serious alternative-asset class, with prices having exploded since the 2020/21 sale of “Stan” the T. rex for $31M (vs. ~$8M for “Sue” two decades earlier) and Ken Griffin’s $45M stegosaurus “Apex” purchase. The market is still immature — pricing has no proper comps, provenance rules are still being formalized, and it’s heavily skewed toward younger tech/science buyers — meaning sophisticated buyers can find edge by acquiring during excavation rather than at auction, but speculative buying is risky and not advised.

Summary

Stocks/investments mentioned: No public equities recommended. The episode is about fossils as an alternative asset class. References to known buyers: Ken Griffin (Citadel — bought Apex stegosaurus for $45M), Abu Dhabi Natural History Museum (bought “Stan” T. rex for $31M at Christie’s, 2020/21), and an unnamed consortium that bought “Sue” (~$8M, on display at Field Museum, Chicago). Auction houses Christie’s and Sotheby’s are the main public-market intermediaries.

Actionable insights & investment advice:

1. The market is booming but immature. Prices have exploded ~5x in 5 years since Stan’s sale. Triceratops “Big John” hit ~$8M at auction (vs. <$1M a decade prior). A raptor “Hector” hit £12-13M. A second allosaurus made $37M. There’s no depth of pricing comps, so volatility and mispricings exist in both directions.

2. Stick to American fossils. US laws are clear: if found on private land with proper agreements, it’s legal to sell. Other countries (notably anywhere requiring “export permits”) are murky. The guest’s flat advice: do not get involved with non-American material.

3. Provenance is everything — and the rules are tightening. Required diligence now includes: GPS coordinates, land deeds, dinosaur-hunter/landowner sale agreements, in-situ video of excavation (to prove no bones were added), corroborating witness statements, and ideally on-site verification by experts. Pieces sold “decades ago” usually lack this paperwork — buyer beware.

4. Understand “completeness” — the bone map game. Dealers can show a colored-in bone map suggesting a near-complete skeleton when actually only ~5% of each bone is real. Reputable practice: paleontologist verification, conservator-built bone maps with percentage of each bone preserved. Snapping a bone in half can artificially “double” completeness — watch for this.

5. The right question isn’t “T. rex or triceratops” — it’s “which bones.” A T. rex skull without original teeth is much less valuable; a triceratops skull without horns is essentially worthless. A 50%-complete Nanosaurus (small, brittle, Jurassic, rarely found) is amazing; a 50%-complete triceratops is mediocre. Don’t pay for the brand name — pay for the key bones plus excellent condition for that specific species.

6. Carnivores command premiums. T. rex, Gorgosaurus, Allosaurus, juveniles thereof — there’s a queue of 5-6 buyers ready to wire money on an email photo. Among herbivores, only iconic ones (triceratops) attract similar competition.

7. Best entry: pre-buy during excavation, not at auction. By the time a great specimen is fully excavated and prepped, you’re competing against sovereign wealth funds, petrostate museums, and tech billionaires — Sotheby’s/Christie’s prices are generally unbeatable. Buyers who reserve a piece while it’s still being dug get better terms. The guest does this by sending clients propositions as discoveries happen.

8. Don’t buy a stake in an expedition. Even if affordable, this is “fun and exciting” but high-risk. You can’t supervise remote dig sites; bones can be pocketed; sellers can hold back pieces and extort you later (“by the way, I found a few more bones you’ll want to buy”). Better to delegate the headache to a trusted dealer at fair market value.

9. Don’t buy as an investment. Speculative buying is a red flag — pieces resold privately within 6-12 months of auction signal flippers, not collectors. Buy because you love it. Multiple unknowns affect future value: the US could shut the private trade down (creating a windfall) or property prices could compress demand for room-sized objects (creating a crash). Treat it as passion, not portfolio.

10. Watch the museum-private collector ecosystem develop. Unlike art museums, natural history museums historically don’t have donor/patron culture. That’s beginning to change — private collectors are now buying fossils on behalf of museums (e.g., a recent guest-led purchase: an unknown new species placed at the UK’s Natural History Museum via a private-buyer-funded acquisition). Speculation: a wave of private museums founded by tech-bro collectors in the next decade.

11. Career angle for paleontology: With private capital flowing into excavation, dig seasons that previously made no economic sense are now viable. The number of paleontology careers should expand — including new private museums needing curators and on-site specialists.

Why these prices became real: Two market-structure shifts converged. (a) Christie’s/Sotheby’s started consigning major fossils, pumping them into news cycles. (b) The guest’s gallery (David Aaron) was the first to exhibit fossils as art at art fairs, applying art-market provenance and condition standards. The result was visibility and legitimacy, which drew tech bros and private collectors with advisors — and prices exploded.

Chapter Summaries

1. Cold open & Joe’s dinosaur skepticism — Tracy and Joe’s tangent on which prehistoric animals are technically dinosaurs (pterodactyls aren’t, woolly mammoths aren’t). Joe is skeptical that nothing alive today resembles dinosaurs; Tracy argues birds/chickens have a reptilian vibe. Joe later concedes the Nanosaurus looks like a pheasant.

2. Setting up the market — Citadel’s Ken Griffin paid ~$45M for a stegosaurus a few years back. Once you’ve done art and antiquities at scale, fossils are the next frontier. There’s also a market-structure angle: ethics, regulation, sourcing.

3. Comparing to the art/antiquities market — Salomon Aaron (David Aaron Gallery, London) explains the fossil market is starting to resemble the art market but lacks depth — research, comps, condition standards, attribution rules are all still being built. The boom of the past decade is starting to mature into a flight to quality.

4. How fossils get to market — Most US fossils come from Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota — climate, dig conditions, and ample land. Excavation is labor-intensive and risky (whole seasons can yield nothing). Higher prices have made marginal digs economically viable, increasing supply.

5. Provenance rules — GPS coordinates, land deeds, sale agreements, in-situ video, corroborating statements, on-site expert verification. Aaron applied antiquities-market rules to fossils when entering the market.

6. Third-party verification & bone maps — Independent paleontologists, conservators building percentage-by-bone bone maps. The “snap a bone in half” trick. The fossil market lacks the consultant/advisor depth of fine art.

7. Pricing & the Stan/Apex water-shed — Stan T. rex sold for $31M (2020/21), prior record was $8M (Sue, early 2000s). After Stan: triceratops Big John ~$8M, raptor Hector £12-13M, Apex stegosaurus $45M, allosaurus $37M. No logic to old prices except lack of visibility.

8. Composites, fragments, and the cheaper end — Some dealers sell composites or assemblages from multiple individuals. Aaron’s gallery focuses on top-tier non-composite pieces, but mineral shows and fragments (T. rex teeth from the hundreds of dollars) form a large lower market.

9. What gives a fossil value — Pay attention to which bones are present, not just completeness. Carnivores command premiums. Iconic features matter (triceratops horns, T. rex teeth). The brand-vs-bones distinction is where smart money has edge.

10. How serious collectors actually buy — Pre-buying during excavation. The guest narrates a multi-year process of placing propositions to a client as discoveries happen, ultimately landing an unknown new species now on display at the UK Natural History Museum.

11. Buying a stake in an expedition — Possible but not recommended. High risk, supervisory issues, extortion potential.

12. Speculation, ethics & dinosaurs back to life — The market has speculators but Aaron discourages it. Joke about cloning (“Bloomberg HQ surrounded by triceratops in 20 years”). Ethical concerns about Pandora’s box.

13. Paleontology careers & private museums — More private capital → more digs → more paleontology jobs and likely a wave of private museums.

14. Universal appeal & wrap — Dinosaurs vastly out-search Modigliani or Jeff Koons on Google. Universal child-and-adult interest is the demand floor; art categories rotate, dinosaurs don’t.