Most important take away

Corporate earnings are in a historic boom (43% blended growth for tech, 14% for the S&P 500, with revenue up 9.7%) — this is fundamentally driven, not a bubble, but professional investors should avoid chasing semiconductors at 80+ RSI levels and wait for better entries. The “Mag 7” earnings week (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft on Wednesday; Apple on Thursday) will be pivotal, with AWS acceleration and CapEx credibility being the key storylines. For risk-averse investors, a permanent/sleep-at-night portfolio (25% stocks, 25% long-term treasuries, 25% commodities or gold, 25% cash) trades upside for stability with ~95-98% positive rolling 5-year periods.

Summary

Actionable Insights & Investment Advice

Big Tech Earnings Preview (Mag 7 Week)

• Amazon (AMZN) — Reports Wednesday after close. Consensus: $1.63 EPS, $177B revenue (14% growth). Morgan Stanley sees AWS accelerating into AI workload migrations, projecting 38% AWS growth in 2026 vs. street at 26%. Mark Mahaney expects modest beat but is worried about Q2 guidance and CapEx (Amazon guided $200B for 2026, +60% YoY). Josh flagged a textbook “island reversal” pattern that played out — stock went from ~$210 to ~$260 and made new all-time highs. Josh holds AMZN as his second-largest personal position and is staying through earnings.
• Microsoft (MSFT) — Reports Wednesday. Consensus: $4.07 EPS, $81.37B revenue. Stock in 35% drawdown from highs. Polymarket pricing 94.5% probability of beat. Watch for Azure growth at 37-38%+. Concerns about OpenAI exposure (WSJ reported OpenAI missing internal targets, but company denied).
• Meta (META) — Reports Wednesday. Consensus: $7.51 EPS, $55.5B revenue (31% growth). Zuckerberg pushing “era of personal superintelligence.” Ad click rate guidance 3-5% growth. CapEx credibility is the key story: $115-135B for 2025, $142B for 2026. Has new 2nm chip with Broadcom. Josh says Meta is the cleanest, most digestible call to listen to.
• Apple (AAPL) — Reports Thursday. Consensus: $1.94 EPS (17% growth), $109B revenue. Tim Cook transitioning to chairman; John Ternus taking over CEO. Services expected at $30.4B (14% growth, the highest-margin segment). Apple is the cleanest chart technically — possible cup-and-handle forming. Stunning stat: iPhone trailing 12-month revenue ($226B) exceeds all of Nvidia ($216B).

Earnings Boom (Bullish Macro Signal)

• Historic earnings inflection — fastest growth since mid-90s and late dot-com bubble, but unique because it’s NOT coming off an EPS drawdown recovery.
• Tech earnings growing 43%, S&P overall ~14%. Semis (Micron, SanDisk) showing extraordinary forward-EPS jumps (Micron from $9 to $85 forward EPS in 12 months; SanDisk from $2 to $99).
• Every sector showing revenue growth YoY; only energy and healthcare have negative earnings growth.
• Takeaway: This is real fundamental growth, not financial engineering. Hard to call this a bubble when companies missing guidance (Spotify) get punished hard.

Sleep-at-Night / Permanent Portfolio

• Michael Hartnett’s “sleep like a baby” portfolio: 25% stocks / 25% long-term Treasuries / 25% commodities / 25% cash & T-bills. Annualizing ~27% YTD.
• Classic Permanent Portfolio (Harry Browne, 1980s): 25% stocks / 25% long bonds / 25% gold / 25% cash.
• Trade-off: Best year ever for permanent portfolio is +39% (vs. S&P’s +52%); but 95-98% of rolling 5-year periods are positive vs. 88% for S&P. Average down year is only -3%.
• Hartnett’s “4 Cs” for the year: Curve steepeners, Consumer cyclicals, Chip stocks, Commodities.
• Real fund: Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds (~$7.4B AUM) — 20% gold, 5% silver, 10% Swiss franc assets, 15% real estate/natural resources, 15% aggressive growth, 35% dollar assets.

Semiconductor Warning — DON’T Chase

• SMH up 29% in three weeks then reversed -3%. Average post-thrust return historically only 12% over 63 days — current move is overextended.
• Bespoke’s “Ludicrous List” (>$500M cap, P/S >10x, doubled YoY): now 175 stocks, ~$20T market cap, ~25% of Russell 3000. High frothiness signal.
• Professional investors do NOT buy stocks at 84+ RSI. Current RSIs flagged as too hot: ON Semi (88), STMicro (87), Intel (83), AMD (80), Marvell (78), TI (76), Monolithic Power (76), Nvidia (76), Qualcomm (74), Broadcom (74), Kioxia (81), Seagate (77), Western Digital (75).
• Josh wrote a CNBC Pro column suggesting waiting for better entries on Microchip Tech, Broadcom, Nvidia, and Intel.

Spotify (SPOT) — Avoid / Caution

• Down ~11% on day; 45% drawdown from summer peak.
• Q1 was solid (revenue +40% YoY, beat KPIs, added 10M MAUs vs. 8M guide), but next-quarter guidance was the problem.
• Ad-supported tier struggling; not a cheap stock; market is disciplined and punishing.

Robinhood (HOOD) — Skeptical

• Stock back to $75 (from $100 highs). Double miss on report.
• Total platform assets fell from $342B to $327B despite $18B in net deposits — meaning users are LOSING money.
• Crypto transaction revenue down 39% QoQ; options down 17%.
• Counterparty reality: Jane Street (mostly invisible) made $39.6B in 2025 revenue and $31.5B EBITDA — they are eating retail traders alive. Josh’s warning: retail is trading against AI software designed to take your money.
• Catalyst to bring traders back: Bitcoin returning to $100K.

Joby Aviation (JOBY) — Long-Term Speculative Buy (Josh’s Make-the-Case)

• Highly speculative. Could go to zero. Requires 5-10 year holding period.
• ~$8B market cap; pre-revenue (acquired Blade for ~$100M revenue).
• Burning ~$500M; raises secondaries on every momentum spike (dilutive).
• Bull case: Successful test flight from JFK to Manhattan’s west side; silent eVTOL with 6 props (double redundancy vs. helicopter’s single rotor failure point); fully vertically integrated (software, pilots, manufacturing, batteries); EV Integration Pilot Program takes effect next month; partnership with Uber for Dubai/UAE air taxi service.
• Josh has been adding on the 50% drawdown.

Other Mentions

• Nike (NKE) — Smallest stock in the Dow at ~$60B (down from $275B peak). Trading at $44. Likely candidate for Dow removal. Possible take-private/Saudi acquisition target. Josh teasing potential to “catch the falling knife.”
• Japan / WisdomTree OPPJ — Sponsor mention, but Josh confirms thesis is working: aggregate dividends and buybacks of Japanese stocks have exploded due to corporate governance reforms.

Chapter Summaries

Intro & Sponsors — Josh and Michael open with chat shoutouts. Note that Robinhood prediction-market revenue surpassed crypto revenue last quarter — gambling is just being recycled. WisdomTree (Japan / OPPJ) and Janus Henderson (securitized credit) sponsor reads. Brief Japan thesis update.

Mag 7 Earnings Preview — Detailed walk-through of expectations for Amazon, Microsoft, Meta (all Wed), and Apple (Thu). Discussion of which calls are most worth listening to (Meta most digestible, Microsoft too technical, Apple buttoned-up). iPhone revenue ($226B) now bigger than all of Nvidia ($216B).

The Earnings Boom — Warren Pies chart showing historic earnings inflection. Tech at 43% growth, broader index 14%. Even ex-Nvidia, growth is staggering. Micron and SanDisk forward EPS up 10x and 50x respectively in a year. Across the board: every sector has revenue growth; only energy and healthcare have negative earnings growth. Halliburton example shows commodity-driven inflection.

Sleep at Night / Permanent Portfolio — Deep dive on Hartnett’s variant and Harry Browne’s classic. Trade-offs: lower upside, fewer drawdowns. Hartnett’s “4 Cs” for 2026. Look at Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds (~$7.4B AUM) actual performance.

Semiconductor Reversal & Ludicrous List — Ned Davis Research data on momentum thrust returns. Bespoke’s “Ludicrous List” of frothy stocks. RSI warnings for chip names. Josh’s CNBC Pro column on better entries.

Spotify Earnings — Beat the quarter but guided weak. Stock down 11%. Reminiscent of Netflix’s content-spend phase. Market is disciplined, not bubbly.

Robinhood Earnings — Double miss. Asset shrinkage despite deposits = customers losing money. Jane Street’s eye-popping $39.6B revenue / $31.5B EBITDA as the counterparty. Josh’s warning about trading against algorithms.

Make the Case: Joby Aviation — Josh’s account of attending Joby’s test flight at Blade’s lounge. Description of eVTOL technology vs. helicopters (silent, redundant props, battery-powered, vertical integration). EV Integration Pilot Program launching. Highly speculative bet on a 5-10 year horizon.

Mystery Chart: Nike — Smallest Dow stock at ~$60B; down from $275B peak. Possible take-private candidate. Josh teasing potential entry.

Outro — Show wrap, plugs for Animal Spirits, Ask the Compound, idontshop.com, and upcoming Compound & Friends episode.