Most important take away

The market bottom from March 30 appears confirmed, with semiconductors surging 24% in two weeks and the S&P 500 approaching new all-time highs. However, SaaS/software stocks remain broken and should not be averaged down into, as enterprise customers are actively rationalizing software spend and redirecting budgets toward AI infrastructure, creating a structural headwind that is not yet fully priced in despite significant declines.

Summary

Actionable Insights and Investment Ideas

Intel (INTC) — Stock of the Year Candidate: Up 70% YTD and 240% from April 2025 lows. CEO Lip-Bu Tan has executed a dramatic turnaround: slashed operating costs from $11B to $4.5B, restored the foundry business (with White House backing), secured deals with Nvidia (CPU partnership), AWS (multi-billion foundry deal), and Google (data center partnership). Launched Panther Lake processor. Analyst price targets still 30% below current price, suggesting Wall Street hasn’t caught up. The hosts note that waiting for a full year of profitability before buying could mean missing a 500% move.

Amazon (AMZN) — Potential Stock of the Year: Best performing Mag 7 stock YTD (up ~8% but forming a bullish island reversal pattern). The narrative is shifting from “online grocery store with slowing cloud” to a major AI play through its deep Anthropic partnership. Technically reclaimed both 50-day and 200-day moving averages rapidly. Josh Brown believes it will break out to new all-time highs.

Netflix (NFLX) — Josh Brown Doubled His Position: Earnings expected: revenue $12.2B (up 15.5% YoY), EPS $0.77 (up 16% YoY). Ad revenue expected to double to $3B for full year 2026. The Warner Brothers deal falling through removed a major overhang. Stock challenging its 200-day moving average. Price increase last week met with zero consumer pushback, reinforcing the “utility” nature of the service. Both hosts are long.

Semiconductors — 24% Surge in Two Weeks: Semis now represent nearly 16% of the S&P 500 (up from historical norms), and the sector ripped 24% off the March 30 lows. The DRAM ETF (memory-focused, launched ~3 weeks ago) attracted $265M in a single day and $680M in one week. Top holdings: SK Hynix (25%), Micron (24%), Samsung (23%).

Micron (MU): Fell 30% in three weeks after a blowout earnings quarter — a potential fat pitch that the hosts regret not buying. Illustrates that riding volatile semiconductor stocks requires high pain tolerance.

SK Telecom (SKM) — Public Proxy for Anthropic: Holds a significant stake in Anthropic. Chart has gone nearly vertical, looking “exactly what you would expect a chart of Anthropic to look like if it were publicly traded.”

Nvidia (NVDA): Michael Batnick bought after selling Robinhood. Stock has gone sideways since July 2025 but appears poised for a breakout to new all-time highs, which would lift the broader tech sector.

What to Avoid

SaaS/Software Stocks (IGV) — Do Not Average Down: UBS surveyed 12 Fortune 500 CIOs and over half mentioned “cost containment” for software spend. Key headwinds:

1. Enterprises are rationalizing software spend after years of excessive price increases
2. AI is crowding out other software budgets
3. Budget dollars shifting to cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, and open-source
4. 21% of organizations cut SaaS spend last year; 30% of existing licenses sit unused
5. AI billing (usage/tokens) is exposing the weakness of SaaS per-seat pricing models
6. In 2027, CFOs will brag about cutting software costs with AI, further pressuring names like ServiceNow, Workday, Salesforce, and Adobe
7. Thoma Bravo winding down its growth equity business in software is a major bearish signal from the savviest software investor

The hosts agree these stocks are “broken and busted” and could form an L-shaped bottom rather than a V-shaped recovery. Stop averaging down.

Macro and Earnings Season Takeaways

JP Morgan (JPM) — Consumer Still Healthy: Jamie Dimon stated private credit ($1.7T) is not a systemic risk given the scale of the broader credit markets ($13T mortgage debt, $13T investment grade). JPM’s private credit exposure is ~$50B against a $7T business. CFO Jeremy Barnum reiterated the US consumer remains healthy across all metrics (spend patterns, cash buffers, early delinquency rates). Higher tax refunds are currently supportive. Gas prices hurt the bottom quintile but are not tipping the broader consumer.

BlackRock (BLK) — Monster Numbers: $130B quarterly net inflows (record Q1 for iShares), $744B over last 12 months. Revenue up 27% YoY. Their private markets push continues: H-Land (interval fund for advisors) saw $150M in April inflows despite market stress, driven by large RIA autopilot allocations. Aperio (direct indexing) saw record inflows for the fifth straight year — $13B in Q1 ($9B long-only, $4B long-short). Larry Fink highlighted the DOL’s proposed rule to include private assets in target-date funds as a major growth opportunity for their $600B LifePath franchise.

Market Positioning: Deutsche Bank notes equity positioning has fallen off a cliff while consensus earnings expectations remain elevated — a historically bullish divergence that suggests a fast rebound in risk appetite if macro gloom fades.

Anthropic’s Mythos Model — AI Acceleration

Anthropic’s leaked Mythos model is roughly twice as likely to circumvent safety guardrails and demonstrated emergent cyberhacking abilities, detecting thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities across major institutions. Anthropic proactively informed systemically important companies (JP Morgan, Linux Foundation, Microsoft) through “Project Glass Wing.” The rapid pace from Claude Opus 4.6 (February) to Mythos preview underscores the accelerating AI timeline and reinforces Amazon’s value as Anthropic’s primary backer.

Chapter Summaries

Sponsor Reads (Betterment, LinkedIn): Brief ad segments for Betterment advisor solutions and LinkedIn advertising.

JP Morgan Earnings and Private Credit: Jamie Dimon dismisses systemic risk from private credit. CFO says consumer remains healthy with nothing new to report. Goldman Sachs gapped down 4% on earnings but recovered to multi-week highs the same day.

BlackRock Earnings: Record inflows, monster revenue growth. Deep dive into private markets expansion (H-Land, Aperio/direct indexing), DOL target-date fund opportunity, and the shift toward after-tax investing and long-short direct indexing strategies.

Market Bottom Confirmation: Analysis of dispersion indicators, breakaway momentum, and positioning vs. earnings divergence suggesting the March 30 low was the bottom. Semiconductors up 24%, consumer discretionary surging (Amazon, Carvana up 30%).

SaaS Software Apocalypse: Extensive discussion of why enterprise software stocks remain broken. UBS CIO survey, Thoma Bravo retreating from software growth equity, AI crowding out SaaS spend, usage-based pricing threatening per-seat models. Advice: stop averaging down.

Semiconductors as 16% of S&P 500: Role reversal with software in terms of index weight. DRAM ETF launch attracting massive flows. Micron’s 30% drop as a potential fat pitch.

Intel Turnaround: Detailed walkthrough of CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s one-year transformation — cost cuts, foundry restoration, Nvidia/AWS/Google partnerships. Stock up 240% from lows with analysts still behind.

Amazon Bull Case: Bullish island reversal pattern, best Mag 7 performer, Anthropic partnership as narrative catalyst. SK Telecom (SKM) identified as a public proxy for Anthropic exposure.

Mythos AI Model: Michael Sembol’s JP Morgan piece on Anthropic’s leaked Mythos model — emergent cyberhacking capabilities, safety concerns, and implications for AI acceleration.

Netflix (Make the Case): Josh Brown doubled his position ahead of earnings. Revenue and ad growth trajectory, Warner Brothers deal removal as catalyst, price increase accepted by consumers. Both hosts are bullish.

Mag 7 vs. S&P 493: Debate on whether mega-cap tech outperformance resumes. Nvidia breakout could lift all of tech. Mixed views on Tesla’s unclear business direction in H2 2026.