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Which Beaten Down Stocks Are Worth a Closer Look?

Ask The Compound · Ben Carlson, Duncan Hill · April 1, 2026 · Original

Most important take away

Despite the Mag 7 getting slammed (all down 10%+, three in bear markets), the equal-weight S&P 500 is actually flat on the year — energy, materials, utilities, and industrials are picking up the slack. Ben’s highest-conviction “plug your nose and buy” picks are Microsoft, Meta, and Netflix, all down roughly a third.

Summary

Actionable Insights & Investment Advice

  1. The Mag 7 selloff isn’t killing the whole market. Equal-weight S&P is flat YTD while Mag 7 ETF is down ~14%. Energy (+40% YTD), materials, utilities, consumer staples, and industrials are counterbalancing. Don’t assume a Mag 7 crash means total market destruction.

  2. Ben’s highest-conviction buys (down ~33% each):

    • Microsoft — Ben has been “nibbling.” Could be a proxy for OpenAI. Trading at a cheaper valuation than in years.
    • Meta — Trading at ~17x forward earnings. Survived the Metaverse write-off; the stock dropped 70% then came roaring back. Lawsuits are a headline risk but historically big tech pays fines and moves on.
    • Netflix — Down ~45% at worst after a failed bid for Paramount, now recovering.
  3. Other beaten-down watch list names:

    • Software (Adobe, Salesforce, CoreWeave): Down 50-60%+. “Fat pitch territory” but riskier — AI disruption of moats is real concern.
    • Private equity managers (KKR, Apollo, Blackstone): Down 40-50%. Private credit fears + rate concerns, but they manage tons across multiple asset classes and still collect fees.
    • Credit cards (Capital One, Ally, AmEx, Visa, Mastercard): Down 17-30%. AmEx is interesting as a K-shaped economy play — their affluent customer base is still spending (Delta CEO: bookings up 25% YoY).
    • Fintech (Robinhood -55%, Coinbase -60%, Block -80%): Extreme carnage. If you want crypto exposure, just buy Bitcoin directly.
    • NVIDIA: Down ~15% from highs, trading at 15x next year’s earnings with 74% earnings growth this year. Ben calls it the “sexiest fat pitch.”
  4. Don’t fight the 24/7 trading trend. NYSE is preparing for round-the-clock trading. Wider spreads, less liquidity after hours. You don’t have to participate — be a low-frequency trader in a high-frequency world.

  5. Why valuations are structurally higher today:

    • Automatic investing revolution (401ks, index funds)
    • Lower barriers to entry (millions more retail investors)
    • Corporations are more efficient — higher margins, more intangible-asset-heavy, higher profits per employee

Career Advice for Financial Advisors

  • Start a newsletter on Substack or Beehive — email is still the last channel everyone checks daily
  • Write for your clients, not for industry publications — building a library of expertise that answers the questions you know clients will have
  • Write in plain English, not jargon — that’s how Ben built his audience
  • Go in with zero expectations — Ben blogged to no audience for a year before it changed his career
  • Own your own platform — guest publishing on other sites doesn’t build your funnel

Chapter Summaries

  1. Mag 7 Selloff Analysis — All Mag 7 stocks down 10%+, three in bear markets (Tesla, Meta, Microsoft). But equal-weight S&P is flat YTD as energy and defensive sectors compensate.

  2. Beaten-Down Stock Watch List — Ben walks through categories: software (-50-60%), private equity managers (-40-50%), credit cards (-17-30%), fintech (-55-80%), and his top picks: Microsoft, Meta, Netflix (all ~-33%).

  3. 24/7 Trading — NYSE preparing for round-the-clock trading. Ben doesn’t love it but says the trend is inevitable. After-hours trading already exists with wider spreads and less liquidity.

  4. Why Valuations Are Higher — Three structural reasons: automatic investing, lower barriers to entry, and more efficient corporations with higher margins. Not a bubble — a genuine shift.

  5. Content Creation for Financial Advisors — Start with a newsletter, write in your own voice for your clients, build a library of evergreen expertise, own your platform, and expect nothing at the start.