Most important take away

A massive intraday rally (1,000-point Dow surge) was triggered by headlines that Iran’s PM is willing to talk and Trump told aides he’d end the war even without the Strait of Hormuz reopening. This confirmed the “Trump put” thesis — the market was refusing to capitulate because it was pricing in a resolution. Meanwhile, 75% of the S&P’s Q1 losses came from just the Mag 7, with Microsoft’s 34% decline leading the charge.

Summary

Actionable Insights & Investment Advice

1. The “Trump Put” was confirmed. The market’s refusal to capitulate (no 2%+ down days, VIX not spiking) despite constant negative headlines was because it was pricing in an eventual resolution. Today’s 1,000-point rally on peace headlines validates this. The risk was getting out at the lows, not staying in.

2. Multiple compression + intact earnings = opportunity. 19% multiple contraction YTD with earnings still at all-time highs and a sixth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth projected. If fundamentals hold, this is exactly the setup you want to buy.

3. 75% of S&P Q1 losses came from Mag 7. Microsoft (-34%) led the charge. The rest of the market is holding up — this is concentrated pain, not broad-based deterioration.

4. Fat pitch stocks discussed:

   • IGV (software ETF): Josh bought at Friday’s lows. Holdings include Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Palantir, Microsoft. Fat pitch even if not the ultimate bottom.
   • NVIDIA: Down to ~$170 from $215. Trading at 15x forward earnings with 74% earnings growth. “The sexiest pitch” — obvious buy for any growth or value manager.
   • American Express: Down 25% on white-collar AI displacement fears. Delta CEO says bookings up 25% YoY, premium consumer is healthy. Fat pitch.
   • Oracle: Down 58%. Not a fat pitch — too many false bounces. “Dirty little pitch.”
   • Meta: Trading at 16-17x forward earnings after the selloff. Fat pitch.

5. The case for AT&T and Verizon:

   • Both shed terrible acquisitions (AT&T dumped Time Warner/$85B mistake; Verizon wrote off AOL/Yahoo)
   • Now leaner, de-leveraging, focused on broadband + wireless
   • Indispensable in AI age (everything needs connectivity)
   • Verizon: 20 years of consecutive dividend raises; AT&T approaching $30 breakout level
   • Extremely “halo” (defensive) in this environment
   • Energy stocks up ~40% YTD; these are similarly defensive

6. US energy independence is a massive advantage. US natural gas prices are unaffected by the crisis. European natural gas has gone vertical. “We are the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.”

7. Historical win rates: Since 1950, buying stocks when down 10%+ from highs produced positive returns 93% of the time over 3 years (avg +42%). Don’t obsess over the 3-out-of-56 times markets fell 50%.

Stocks & Companies Mentioned

• NVIDIA (NVDA) — 15x forward earnings, 74% earnings growth, fat pitch
• Microsoft (MSFT) — Down 34%, largest single contributor to S&P Q1 losses
• Meta (META) — 16-17x forward earnings, fat pitch
• American Express (AXP) — Down 25%, premium consumer healthy, fat pitch
• AT&T (T) — Approaching $30 breakout, shed Time Warner, broadband/wireless focused, dividend play
• Verizon (VZ) — 20 consecutive dividend raises, low churn, de-leveraging
• Oracle (ORCL) — Down 58%, not a fat pitch
• IGV (software ETF) — Josh bought at Friday’s lows
• LNG (Cheniere Energy) — 12 years building Gulf export terminals, now critical
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) — SpaceX proxy in public markets
• Apple (AAPL) — On verge of AI product launch
• Public.com — Launched agentic AI for brokerage accounts (auto-hedging, stop losses, cash sweeps)

Chapter Summaries

1. The Rally — Iran peace headlines triggered a 1,000-point Dow rally. WSJ reported Trump willing to end war without Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iran’s president said ready to end war with guarantees. Confirmed the “Trump put” thesis.

2. Energy Independence — US natural gas prices at 6-month lows despite global energy crisis. European natural gas going vertical. US is essentially unaffected on the nat gas side, though gasoline prices hit $4+.

3. Q1 Worst Quarter in 4 Years — NASDAQ down 10%+, S&P down ~8%. But 75% of S&P point losses came from Mag 7 alone. Multiple compression with intact earnings growth. Lessons: (1) something always interrupts the setup, (2) you can’t control what multiple investors will pay, (3) not every stock goes down in a normal correction.

4. Fat Pitch Stock Review — Josh and Michael evaluate beaten-down names: IGV (fat pitch), NVIDIA (sexiest pitch), American Express (fat pitch), Oracle (not fat pitch), Meta (fat pitch at 16x).

5. The Case for AT&T and Verizon — Both shed disastrous acquisitions, now focused on broadband/wireless, indispensable for AI, defensive, paying dividends. AT&T approaching technical breakout at $30.

6. Win Rates After Corrections — Ben Carlson data: since 1950, buying 10%+ drawdowns has a 93% win rate over 3 years. Don’t let the rare 50% crashes dominate your thinking.

7. Equal Weight vs. Cap Weight — Despite recent equal-weight outperformance, Josh argues cap-weight (Apple, NVIDIA) is still where you want to be if stocks work this year.