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How Much Money Should You Save?

Ask The Compound · Ben Carlson — Duncan Hill · March 25, 2026 · Original

Most important take away

Your savings rate matters far more than your investment returns, especially over shorter time horizons. Doubling your savings rate leads to better outcomes than doubling your investment return, and doubling your savings rate is far easier for most people. Whether you are starting early or playing catch-up, consistently increasing your savings rate and making course corrections over time is the most reliable path to retirement readiness.

Chapter Summaries

Listener Feedback and the Value of Staying the Course

James, a listener, shares how he went back through old episodes covering the 2022 bear market and realized that steadily saving, dollar cost averaging, and staying emotionally steady was the path to success. Ben notes that people are often better off either paying close attention or none at all — it is the middle ground of partial knowledge that tends to hurt investors.

How Much Should You Save for Retirement? (Jay’s Question)

A 37-year-old listener asks how to determine a target retirement nest egg. Ben explains the 4% rule baseline (25x your annual spending), but stresses that projections this far out will certainly be wrong. The key is to set benchmarks, revisit them regularly, increase your savings rate a bit each year, and make course corrections as life changes. “Enough” is more of a mindset than a number.

Is $500K in NYC Middle Class? (The Viral NYT Article)

A listener asks about the New York Times piece on a family of three earning $500,000 in Manhattan who called themselves “middle class.” Ben clarifies that $500K puts you in the top 2% of U.S. earners — that is not middle class. However, the feeling of being “normal” is driven by the extremely wealthy neighbors on the Upper West Side. The family saves $120,000/year (more than the NYC median income), which is an excellent savings rate. The takeaway: wealth is relative, but do not call yourself middle class when you are objectively rich.

Should Investors Under 40 Own Bonds?

Duncan asks whether bonds still serve a purpose for younger investors. Ben explains bonds have not fundamentally changed; the key is knowing what you are trying to hedge. For inflation protection, short-term TIPS or T-bills work well. For recession/deflation protection, longer-term treasuries are appropriate. The simplest hedge is keeping the “safe” portion in ultra-short-term instruments like T-bills or cash equivalents, which will not lose nominal value. Buffer ETFs can also serve as a defined-outcome alternative. The core idea: be more thoughtful about which type of bond product matches the risk you want to hedge.

Saving for Retirement While in School on the GI Bill (Daniel’s Question)

A 29-year-old veteran receiving tax-free VA disability benefits and GI Bill housing allowance asks whether he should keep saving 15-20% for retirement in a taxable brokerage account while in school. Ben strongly encourages continuing to save, framing the taxable account as a seed vehicle for future optionality — house down payment, wedding, starting a business, or an emergency fund after graduation. Ben also makes a broader case for military service as a path that teaches discipline, provides excellent benefits, and consistently produces financially savvy individuals.

Playing Catch-Up on Retirement Savings (James’s Question)

A 63-year-old who started investing late (and initially listened to the wrong advice, staying in cash) asks if his plan to delay Social Security until 70 and keep working is the right approach. Ben confirms this is exactly the right playbook. Over shorter time frames, savings rate matters more than investment returns. Delaying Social Security from 62 to 70 increases monthly benefits by roughly 70% (about 8% per year guaranteed). Once their son finishes school, they should take advantage of catch-up contributions ($7,500 IRA limit plus $1,100 extra if 50+; extra $8,000/year in 401k if 50+). The critical advice: do not swing for the fences trying to make up for lost time.

Summary

  • Savings rate trumps investment returns over shorter horizons. Doubling your savings rate produces better outcomes than doubling your investment returns, and is far more achievable. This is the single most actionable insight for anyone behind on retirement.

  • The 4% rule gives a baseline but is not gospel. Multiply your expected annual spending (net of Social Security and other income) by 25 to get a rough retirement target. Use it as a starting benchmark, not a definitive answer, and revisit regularly.

  • Delay Social Security if you can. Waiting from age 62 to 70 increases your monthly benefit by roughly 70%, which is effectively an 8% per year guaranteed return. This is one of the highest-impact financial moves for late savers.

  • Take advantage of catch-up contributions. For 2026, IRA contribution limits are $7,500 (plus $1,100 extra if 50+). 401k participants 50 and older can contribute an extra $8,000/year. Once major expenses like children’s education end, redirect that cash flow into retirement accounts.

  • For bond allocation, match the product to the risk you are hedging. T-bills and cash equivalents protect against inflation and rising rates with no nominal downside. Longer-term treasuries protect against recession and deflation. Short-term TIPS hedge inflation without the interest rate risk of long-term TIPS. Buffer ETFs can serve as a defined-outcome alternative to traditional bonds.

  • Investments and products mentioned: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (VTUB/BND referenced), T-bills, TIPS, LTPZ (long-term TIPS ETF), floating rate bonds, muni bonds, buffer ETFs, JEPI (JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF), Betterment advisor solutions, S&P 500 index funds, target date funds, Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), Roth IRA, traditional IRA, 401k, 403b.

  • If you are a young investor unsure what to do with bonds, the simplest approach is to keep your safe allocation in ultra-short-term instruments like T-bills or a high-yield savings account. You will earn the coupon without taking on interest rate risk, though you give up the potential price boost if rates fall.

  • Keep saving even when income is unconventional. Daniel’s situation (tax-free VA benefits while in school) illustrates that any period where major expenses are covered is an opportunity to build a taxable brokerage account that provides future optionality for a home, career change, or emergency cushion.

  • Do not try to make up for lost time by taking outsized investment risk. Swinging for the fences after starting late compounds the problem. Focus on increasing savings rate, working longer, and delaying Social Security instead.