Most important take away

Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel (peaking near $120), marking the largest supply disruption in history with roughly 20% of global oil supply cut off for nine days and no spare capacity available. Despite the historic nature of this shock, the hosts strongly advise against panic selling, citing that long-term holders who stayed invested through prior crises (like COVID) significantly outperformed those who sold, and that broad market sell-offs often create rare buying opportunities in high-quality businesses at depressed valuations.

Chapter Summaries

Oil Price Surge and Market Fear - Oil has doubled in 2026, crossing $100/barrel for the first time since 2022. The hosts explain why this rattles markets: higher input costs for companies, potential inflation resurgence that could force the Fed to raise rates, and squeezed consumer discretionary spending. This is the largest supply disruption in history, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE (the main spare capacity holders) cut off from global markets.

Why Long-Term Holders Should Stay the Course - The team makes the case for holding through volatility rather than panic selling. They note that panic sellers during COVID missed the S&P more than doubling from its pre-pandemic high. Great companies survive market cycles, and broad sell-offs punish strong and weak companies equally, creating buying opportunities. Charlie Munger’s advice: “The first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.”

S&P 500 Index Changes - Four companies are leaving the S&P 500 (Match Group, Malena Healthcare, Lamb Weston, Paycom) and four are joining (Vertev, Lumenthem, Coherent, Echo Star). The newcomers reflect the AI and connectivity infrastructure boom, with all four up triple digits over the past year. Discussion touches on whether AI spending is sustainable, with Matt Frankl noting it can’t keep doubling indefinitely but sees long-tail demand in CPUs and energy infrastructure.

Hims & Hers Stock Surges 40% - Hims & Hers struck a surprise partnership with Novo Nordisk, their former legal adversary, to sell FDA-approved Wegovy directly through their platform. This resolves a major legal overhang (Novo had been suing over patent infringement) and shifts the business model from selling copycat GLP-1 drugs to distributing brand-name treatments. With 39% short interest, the move may also be triggering a short squeeze.

Summary

• Oil at historic levels: Crude surged past $100/barrel (overnight peak ~$120), the sharpest increase in history. ~20% of global supply disrupted for 9 days with no spare capacity available from Saudi Arabia or the UAE. US gas prices up 15% in one week.
• Actionable insight - Do not panic sell: The hosts unanimously advise holding through this volatility. Panic selling locks in losses and forfeits recovery gains. The S&P 500 more than doubled from its pre-COVID high despite that crash. Consider this a potential buying opportunity for high-quality companies being sold off indiscriminately.
• Stocks to watch in the oil shock: Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) were among the few stocks trading up during the sell-off. Matt Frankl noted he avoids oil stocks due to uncontrollable volatility but said great operators like Chevron will remain great operators. Discretionary spending stocks are most at risk if consumer squeeze worsens.
• Actionable insight - Watch discretionary stocks: Companies reliant on consumer discretionary spending could come under significant pressure if high oil prices persist. Walmart (WMT) is highlighted as well-positioned due to its low-price specialization as consumers trade down.
• AI infrastructure spending concerns: AI capex across the Mag 7 is approaching $1 trillion with companies doubling spending annually. Matt Frankl flags “circular spending” (e.g., OpenAI buys NVIDIA chips, NVIDIA invests in OpenAI, OpenAI buys more chips). He does not think it is a bubble but believes the projected growth rate through 2030 is unlikely to materialize. Long-tail demand expected in CPUs and energy infrastructure.
• S&P 500 newcomers to watch: Vertev Holdings (near-monopoly on liquid cooling/power systems for data centers), Lumenthem and Coherent (photonics leaders benefiting from 1.6T transceiver rollout essential for AI GPU clusters), and Echo Star (satellite infrastructure/space defense with SpaceX-related deals). All up triple digits over the past year.
• Actionable insight - Hims & Hers (HIMS): The Novo Nordisk partnership is a significant business model improvement, removing legal risk and shifting from gray-area compounded drugs to selling FDA-approved Wegovy. With 39% short interest, further upside from short covering is possible. However, GLP-1 treatments remain a small part of overall revenue. The company reported its first full year of positive net income in 2025.
• Stocks mentioned: Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), Walmart (WMT), Hims & Hers (HIMS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), NVIDIA (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), OpenAI (private), Match Group (MTCH), Vertev Holdings, Lumenthem, Coherent, Echo Star, Lamb Weston, Paycom, Malena Healthcare.