20VC: Why Most AI Investments Will Do Worse than the S&P 500 | Why Early Stage VC is F****** | The Danger of Kamala Harris and Why Trump and Vance are Best | Freedom of Speech, Censorship and Government Control with Eoghan McCabe @ Intercom
Most important take away
Building a high-performing, domain-specific AI product is far harder than hooking up an LLM — Intercom’s Fin agent took 100+ experiments, ~30 ML engineers, seven interconnected LLMs, and patented components to push resolution rates from the high 20s to nearly 50%. Most “build your own AI” efforts (à la Klarna) and most early-stage AI VC bets will underperform because they underestimate the depth, time, and operational rigor required to turn raw model capability into durable customer value.
Summary
Actionable insights and tech patterns from the conversation:
Career and leadership advice
- Be radically authentic as a leader. Eoghan argues “great leadership is being truly yourself.” Most leaders, even celebrated ones, perform a curated image; the ones who survive failure and drop the ego become more powerful operators.
- Embrace the chip on your shoulder. Almost no founder is “balanced.” Learn to love what drives you rather than fight it — that edge is what creates artists and builders.
- Hard work still wins. Eoghan codified “unreasonably hard work” as an explicit company value. He rejects “work smart not hard” — for genuinely hard problems, sustained energy and focus cannot be beat.
- Lead like a founder, not a consensus-driven professional CEO. Dictate values, dictate policies, accept that some people will self-select out. Consensus produces stasis and mediocrity.
- Use a forcing function to reset a company. He ran “Project 52” — 52 weeks to reinvent Intercom, with a weekly all-hands cadence, new values, and performance management that moved out people who didn’t fit. Culture is an interconnected system; you can’t change it à la carte.
- Going through public failure (sickness, press attacks, slowing revenue) eviscerates ego and produces a more authentic operator — the resilience itself is the asset.
- Keep politics out of the workplace (Brian Armstrong style) but defend employees’ personal speech rights externally. Authenticity at the top filters talent for fit.
Tech patterns and AI strategy
- Domain-specific AI is a moat-by-effort, not a moat-by-architecture. Real performance comes from chaining multiple LLMs, prompt engineering at scale, proprietary data, and 100+ targeted experiments. Defensibility is speed and execution, not patents.
- Don’t build your own AI workflow platforms. It’s the same mistake as building your own SaaS in the 2010s — Klarna-style “we’ll do it ourselves” will likely revert to professional purpose-built systems.
- Watch resolution rate, retention, and expansion — not headline ARR. Many AI companies hit $10M ARR fast on “sugar high” pilots; the durable ones change how customers work and expand inside accounts.
- Technology is deflationary. AI prices will fall, but companies will reinvest the savings into more AI until they over-serve customers; that’s where new product surface emerges (e.g., AI sales assistants in e-commerce).
- AI doesn’t trigger mass layoffs immediately — it freezes hiring. Intercom hasn’t laid off support staff in two years of using Fin; they simply stopped growing the team and now hire only higher-skill humans.
- Klarna-style full replacement only works where the question distribution is very tight (e.g., three question types cover 80% of volume). Most businesses have a long tail and need hybrid AI + human.
- AGI will eventually crush all SaaS, but “the fullness of time” is a decade or two. Like Fax companies, you can make a fortune in the first 10 years if you ride the wave and reinvent.
- Defensibility in software is a near-myth — even Apple lost on many criteria to Samsung. Speed to build, ship, and help customers adopt is the only durable edge until you can layer network effects, data, or ecosystem on top.
Venture and company-building patterns
- Early-stage VC is structurally broken right now — capital is commoditized, time-to-liquidity has stretched from ~8 to 13+ years, and returns are hard to generate at seed.
- Staying private lets you make big swings without analyst-driven quarterly rigor. Intercom nearly IPO’d in June 2022 and the markets collapsed; he’s grateful in retrospect.
- Commercial missteps that stalled Intercom: forcing more customers to talk to sales (killed SMB lifeblood), pricing greed (big upfront contracts vs. land-and-expand). Lesson: protect the small-customer top of funnel; let ACV grow naturally.
- In-office beats remote for company-building. Intercom mandates two days; if starting again he’d do five. Being a person together is “superior and more fun.”
Worldview
- Freedom of speech is the default; jokes are protected; only direct incitement (doxxing + call to violence) crosses the line. Governments shutting down speech is the hallmark of totalitarianism.
- He’s “pro freedom, not pro Trump” — votes for whoever promotes the most personal liberty and peace.
- Robotics will take over blue-collar work in the next decade — historically tech replaces dangerous, demeaning work and GDP/longevity keep rising.
- Biggest under-discussed risk: nuclear escalation between the US and Russia via proxy war.
Chapter Summaries
- Intro and AI disruption framing — Most VC AI money will underperform the S&P 500; building your own AI agent platform is as misguided as building your own SaaS workflow tool.
- Why Intercom isn’t dead from AI — Fin AI agent now resolves ~50% of tickets (vs. Zendesk’s high 20s), built from 100+ experiments, seven LLMs, patented components, 30 ML engineers. Domain-specific AI takes a decade-plus to commoditize.
- AGI vs. SaaS — In the fullness of time AGI crushes SaaS; in the first 10–20 years you can build enormous wealth riding the wave, then reinvent.
- Spotting signal vs. noise in AI revenue — Many AI companies hit $30M ARR in under two years vs. ~5 years for SaaS, but a lot is sugar-high. Look at retention, expansion, and workflow change.
- The Klarna question — “Build your own” AI tooling is a terrible idea; serious AI agents require massive depth most companies can’t replicate.
- AI pricing and team size — Tech is deflationary; AI gets cheaper while customers reinvest savings into more AI. Teams don’t shrink en masse; they stop growing and trade up to higher-skill humans.
- Foundation models vs. application layer — Storytellers (lab CEOs) over-promise; real adoption is slow because customers have practical problems and integrations take years.
- Robotics, photography, and labor displacement — Blue-collar/dangerous work goes first; displaced workers historically specialize upward.
- Defensibility myth — There is no real moat in software except speed and execution; networks/ecosystems can be layered later.
- Founder mode — PG essay just gave permission for what great founders always did; business is art, and art-by-committee is bad art.
- Why Intercom stays private — Hundreds of millions in revenue, no need to satisfy public-market analysts; nearly IPO’d in June 2022, dodged the crash.
- State of VC and liquidity — Early-stage VC commoditized; M&A blocked; companies stay private far longer than the VC model was designed for.
- Refounding Intercom — Project 52: rewrote values (hard work, resilience, mission focus), forced top-down change, moved out misaligned people, restored growth.
- Hard work and consensus — Rejects work-life-balance dogma; founder-mode top-down decisions beat consensus-driven mediocrity.
- Politics, free speech, censorship — Pro Trump/Vance as the freedom ticket; jokes are protected; only doxxing-plus-incitement crosses the line; institutional censorship is “deeply evil.”
- DEI critique — Treating minority candidates as “poker chips” was egregious; glad the industry is sobering up.
- Personal transformation — Leaving Intercom sick and publicly attacked eviscerated ego and produced a more authentic CEO on return.
- San Francisco Freedom Club — Built to make freedom/merit/capitalism feel “sexy” again; 3,700 on the waitlist for 600 spots.
- Quick fire — Nuclear war underestimated; recommends “1984”; favorite VC for Series A/B is Ilya Fushman; great leadership is being truly yourself.